Central African Republic

Recovery in 2027, although economic potential remains underexploited

After peaking in 2025, economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 before rebounding in 2027, supported by improvements in transport infrastructure and accelerated mining production, provided that fuel supply normalises. Agriculture (cotton, coffee, cassava, bananas) accounts for 55% of GDP and employs two-thirds of the population but remains predominantly subsistence-based. The northern part of the country continues to face an acute food crisis despite a seasonal improvement in production, owing to low household incomes and persistently high food prices. Mining activities, which are largely artisanal and semi-mechanised, generate 40% of export revenues. The income they generate has increased significantly since the lifting of the international gold embargo in 2022 and on back of higher export volumes (from an average of 5 tonnes per year to 7 tonnes in 2025) as well as sustained high prices. In 2024, the diamond embargo was also lifted. Last, the forestry sector (3% of GDP) could contribute more to growth through higher productivity in logging operations and the useS of roadmaps, supported by the World Bank, aimed at developing carbon credit markets

Two major projects could significantly improve the Central African Republic’s regional integration and development of its transport corridors. Most trade flows (around 90%) are transported by road, resulting in very high costs, long transit times and checkpoints requiring informal payments. First, to help open up the Central African Republic and landlocked areas of the Republic of the Congo and Chad, the World Bank is financing Corridor 13 (CD13), which will connect Brazzaville with Bangui and later N’Djamena. Construction work began in the Central African Republic in 2025 following a USD 280 million contribution from the African Development Bank. Second, a USD 1.12 billion program was approved by the World Bank in June 2026 to secure and modernise the Douala-Bangui Economic Corridor, which serves as the country’s main supply route (80% of trade passes through it). Last, telecommunications coverage is improving after Orange deployed a 4G network in 2024.

Inflation has admittedly risen again in 2026 on back of higher oil prices and supply disruptions, which have been passed on to the prices of essential goods. However, it remained moderate during the first quarter due to weaker domestic demand, when households were cautious during the final stages of the electoral process. Inflation is expected to slow in 2027 if fuel supply conditions improve. In July, the National Assembly passed a law deregulating petroleum product import activities, which had previously been managed exclusively by the Cameroonian company Neptune Oil. In addition, the regional monetary environment is expected to remain supportive. Higher oil and gas prices are boosting export revenues in the main oil-producing CEMAC countries and strengthening the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). In this context, the policy rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.75% in 2026.

Public finances stuck in deep deficit

The budget deficit is expected to widen temporarily in 2026 - without foreign aid, the deficit would reach almost 10% of GDP - before narrowing again in 2027, albeit in a context of severe cash restrictions and dependence on concessional external financing. Current expenditure (12% of GDP) is dominated by wages, which absorb 70% of domestic revenues, leaving little room for investment in infrastructure and human development. Fiscal consolidation, supported by the IMF under the ECF, includes measures such as keeping tighter control of the wage bill, rationalising subsidies and reallocating resources toward health, education and security priorities. At the same time, domestic revenue mobilisation continues to be weak at below 10% of GDP due to the narrow tax base, the size of the informal economy, tax exemptions and fraud. Public finance reforms therefore aim to raise revenues to at least 12% of GDP. To achieve this, the authorities plan to broaden the tax base, improve tax collectionS and digitalize revenue collection through e-Tax.

The debt burden has been increasing since 2025, but remains below the CEMAC community threshold of 70% of GDP. Its average cost remains relatively low at 2.7%, and the main budgetary restriction stems from the fact that debt servicing represented 40% of mobilised budget revenues in Q1 2026. Debt is expected to continue rising through 2027 amid persistent budget deficits. The trend is magnified by greater reliance on domestic and regional financing. Domestic and regional debt carries less favourable financial terms than external debt. Domestic debt carries an average interest rate of 3.6% with an average maturity of 4.5 years, compared with 0.8% and 9.5 years, respectively, for external debt. It accounts for 70% of total debt stock and is equivalent to 37% of GDP and 90% of the debt service bill. External debt has been contracted on largely concessional terms from multilateral creditors (the IMF, the World Bank and the African Development Bank), as well as bilateral creditors such as Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and India. Debt servicing remains a heavy burden: in the first quarter of 2026, it absorbed 40.93% of budget revenues. Although the debt is sustainable, the Central African Republic continues to face a high risk of debt distress in a context of weak revenues, liquidity pressures and uncertainty regarding external financing.

The current account is structurally in deficit due to the country’s heavy dependence on imports of essential goods, particularly food and energy products, capital goods, and transport and logistics services from Cameroon. However, the deficit is expected to narrow gradually as the trade deficit declines. Exports, which are concentrated on a limited number of products (mainly gold, diamonds, and timber), are hindered by the country’s landlocked position, regional insecurity and poor transport infrastructure. The deficit would be larger in the absence of international aid, which amounts to 5% of GDP and finances the bulk of public investment.

Improving security situation and political stability

The Central African Republic has been in a fragile political and security situation since the outbreak of civil war in 2013. The peace agreement signed in 2019 between the government of Faustin-Archange Touadéra and various rebel groups has failed to fulfil all its promises. Nevertheless, divisions within the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), a movement formed from the merger of six rebel groups in response to the contested re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in 2020, together with the July 2025 peace agreement between the government and two major militias (which are part of the CPC), have slightly increased state control over the territory (10%) and, consequently, over security. However, several armed groups continue to be active, prompting the UN Security Council to extend the sanctions regime until 31 July 2027.

The new constitution introduced after a referendum boycotted by the opposition in July 2023 extended the presidential term to seven years, renewable indefinitely, which paved the way for President Touadéra to remain in power for an extended period. During the general elections held in December 2025 and April 2026, President Touadéra secured a third term by winning the presidential election with 76% of the vote after a voter turnout of 52%. The results were nevertheless contested by part of the opposition.

At the international level, the Central African Republic maintains close ties with Russia, whose forces (Wagner, replaced by the Africa Corps), which have been present in the country since 2017, provide security for the President and train the regular army in exchange for privileged access to the country’s resources (mining, timber and agriculture). However, the visit of the Inspector General of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) in February 2026 reaffirmed US presence in an effort to counter Russian influence. MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping operation deployed in the Central African Republic since 2014, remains in place despite tensions with the government, Russian forces and local populations. In March 2026, the visit of the French Foreign Minister to Bangui marked the normalisation of bilateral relations following the suspension of military cooperation in 2016. France resumed economic support through the French Development Agency (AFD), which included a EUR 25 million loan in October 2025. At the same time, border tensions with Chad, which is accused of supporting certain rebel militias, and the influx of refugees and returnees linked to the Sudanese civil war continue to complicate security management.

Last updated: August 2026